03/02/2026
Early signals for 2026 point to a clear shift in borrowing demand across the commercial landscape. According to the latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report, brokers are expecting stronger demand for business loans and commercial mortgages through the first quarter of the year, even as appetite for asset finance cools slightly.
The survey, conducted by Agile Market Intelligence in partnership with CAFBA between 1 and 25 January 2026, captured insights from 402 mortgage, finance and commercial brokers. The results paint a picture of a market that’s cautious, but increasingly confident.
Business lending momentum builds
Business loans are leading the charge. The market demand index for business lending climbed to +53 in December, continuing a steady upward trend seen over recent months. Commercial mortgages followed a similar path, with an index of +42, rebounding after a brief soft patch late in 2025.
While asset and equipment finance remains firmly in positive territory (+36), the slight easing suggests borrowers are becoming more selective about capital allocation. Instead of broad-based expansion, businesses appear to be prioritising flexible, purpose-driven funding, particularly secured and unsecured business loans that support working capital, cash flow smoothing and strategic investment.
From FINSTREET’s perspective, this shift makes sense. In an environment where rate expectations, costs and trading conditions are still moving, businesses want funding that adapts with them, not structures that lock them in or limit future options.
Confidence rises, but pressure hasn’t disappeared
One of the more telling trends in the report is the change in broker sentiment around regulation. While one in two brokers remains concerned about economic disruption and regulatory impact, anxiety around regulation has eased noticeably, down from 63% in August 2025 to 50% in December.
This points to an industry that’s done the work. Brokers are adjusting to legislative changes, tightening processes and setting clearer expectations with clients. Preparedness, not panic, is becoming the default.
That said, pressure hasn’t vanished. Cash flow stress, particularly relating to staff and creditor payments, is now the only internal business health indicator showing increased concern, affecting 28% of brokers. It’s a reminder that even as demand grows, operational resilience remains critical.
Businesses want to invest – carefully
The Broker Pulse findings align closely with broader business sentiment. A recent CreditorWatch survey of more than 1,000 Australian decision-makers found that 82% of businesses plan to invest over the next 12 months, with a strong focus on technology, marketing and product innovation.
Optimism is holding up, with 76% of leaders confident about future growth, particularly in the financial and insurance sectors and among younger businesses. These firms are moving faster, scaling earlier and thinking more strategically about funding.
But it’s not all green lights. A clear “wait-and-see” mindset remains. Nearly two-thirds of businesses are delaying major investments until economic conditions stabilise, while rising costs, longer payment cycles and shifting customer behaviour continue to weigh heavily, especially in construction.
Labour decisions reflect the same caution. 43% of business leaders aren’t planning to hire, and those who are are favouring contractors and short-term roles to preserve flexibility.
What this means for brokers in 2026
For brokers, the message is clear: demand is there, but it’s more nuanced. Clients aren’t just looking for finance, they’re looking for structure, strategy and certainty.
At FINSTREET, we’re seeing growing demand for:
- Business lending solutions that work alongside complex structures
- Clear pathways through tighter credit policies
- Lenders who understand commercial realities, not just policy boxes
- Advice that balances growth ambition with risk management
As business owners move from survival to selective expansion, brokers who can guide them through smart, adaptable funding options will be the ones who stay front of mind.
The market may still be uneven, but one thing is clear: business and commercial lending is back on the agenda and brokers are ready for it.
